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MORE ARTICLES FOR THE DECISION MAKER BY STUART DAW:
[Up] [How Much is Your Business Worth?] [Making it Buying, or Selling] [Of Coffee, Grounds and Percolators] [Prince and the Predator] [Profits and the New Tycoon] [Transactional Cost Analysis for OCS] [What's Your Price] [Where Do Prices Come From]
Of Coffee, Grounds and Percolators
© 2002 Stuart Daw
Since this is the Tea and Coffee issue (of Canadian
Vending Magazine), let’s look at just a few random items, beginning with
the prime question: "Wha’s happenin’ to the coffee market?" Here
is my opinion, and I’ll charge you what it’s worth, which may be nothing,
depending on the next whim of a Fund manager who is trying to make a market to
cash in on.
In the long run basic economics, the Law of Supply and Demand, controls prices
for everything. The best cure for low prices is low prices. But perhaps
that’s a bit too terse. What it means is that with any product when prices
are low, marginal operators can’t compete and are squeezed out, while others
divert assets to greater wealth-producing activity. There’s a shortage and
prices rise.
In the case of coffee, green costs fall, especially for low-grade coffee, and
marginal farmers can’t afford the fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides
needed to maximize yields. They don’t have the money to pay pickers at
harvest time, though with several kids typically in the family and a lot of
busy little fingers available for picking, the cherries are not likely to rot
on the trees, even if coffee is at a rock bottom price. It’s not like
Saskatchewan wheat farming in the Great Depression, when college kids brought
in from Ontario got off the train only to find themselves standing in fields a
mile square loaded with sheaves of grain for stooking. A very depressing
Depression it was for them as well as the farmers.
As of mid-September 2002, the coffee market is up some 15 cents (US) over the
lows of a month ago, around 28 cents (Canadian, roasted). The fundamentals
don’t support it, but the Funds, which were bearish, suddenly switched and
started to go long. The rising market frightened skittish roasters in many
cases to join in, providing further impetus. And while supply and demand today
don’t seem to justify it, we see the top ten arabica-growing nations all
looking forward to lower yields next year. That is unprecedented, and may well
mean objectively justifiable support for higher prices.
In the long run, more stability in coffee would prevail if the industry were
left alone. The World Bank and other agencies injecting themselves into the
act have helped to exaggerate this situation. In an effort to "help"
Vietnam, aid to that country gave financing and incentive to grow more coffee.
Why are we surprised then when Vietnam rises to be the number two grower in
the world today, having passed Colombia for that honour? This only provides
further proof if any were needed that governments, individually or
collectively, should keep hands off. The desire to sacrifice one group (the
haves) to another (the have-nots) only made the have nots poorer, giving lower
prices to the haves.
The market, if allowed to exist untampered-with by governments would by its
nature be self-regulating. What comes to mind is the origin of the phrase
Laissez-Faire Capitalism. Louis XIV of France, needing more money to conduct
foreign wars, sent his minister of finance, a man named Colbert, to a meeting
of France’s top industrialists. He was, in effect, asking those present how
the government could help them be more productive, not mentioning of course
his purpose, which was to enable the state to receive more in taxes.
A haggard businessman named Legendre stood up in the midst of the meeting, and
in a firm voice said "Laissez-nous faire", which of course means
"leave us alone" in plain English (or "get the H... out of the
way," in modern Canadian parlance).
Meanwhile, let’s tiptoe through all this hoping for nothing too calamitous
to happen with prices in the long run. And let’s promote good coffee.
In closing, and again dealing with the
coffee issue, I was surprised when an Internet coffee provider, a customer of
ours, passed along a couple of questions from his customers. One was why
grinding coffee made coffee instantly (pardon the expression) stale. The other
had to do with why the percolator was passé (I thought it was gone long ago).
As to the grinder making coffee stale, we can say "not guilty as
charged!" It should go without saying that a grinder cuts the beans into
tiny pieces, allowing a greater surface of coffee to be exposed to the air,
thus the staling effect over time, the degree of which depends on how it is
stored. But the grinding per se is not the cause of staling.
One good thing about the percolator — It made the house smell great. The bad
things were almost too numerous to mention. The boiling water rising in the
tube cooled while passing through the cold water bath on the way to the
basket. A few minutes of "blips" and the grounds became
super-saturated, eventually dripping into the cool water below. Constantly
changing temperatures were bad for the brew, and once a weak solution of
coffee was gathering in the pot, it was boiled up the tube for a second run.
The whole process took too long, tending to over-extract the coffee. One can
not imagine a worse procedure for making it. But then it did indeed make the
house smell great.
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articles going back to the 1980's
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